If not now, when?
Last update July 2021
The website is aimed at people in the rich countries of the world who want to rethink how we live our lives today.
The environment and the climate need to be fully protected. This can only be achieved if we open ourselves to a sustainable life.
If I do not see the environmental and climate protection in a larger context, then I will underestimate the urgency of my own actions by far.
1. Our dilemma
Starting Position - Growth and Resources - Environmental Policy - Digitalization - Climate Change - Biodiversity - Economy - Sustainability
© Alexander Sviridov
| Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2021
Our dilemma is that we live in a finite world, but behave as if it were inexhaustible.
No, it's not a climate crisis, but a societal crisis. And it has devastating consequences for the climate and nature - for the entire world as we know it today.
Translated from Lars Hochmann. Economists4future - Verantwortung übernehmen für eine bessere Welt. 2020.
Economic growth is not what everything is based on - but an intact planet.
Climate Strike - FRIDAYS FOR FUTURE
We engage in an experiment that is certain to fail. [...] The gigantic experiment is running worldwide and is based on the hypothesis that unlimited growth is possible on a limited planet.
Translated from Harald Welzer: Alles könnte anders sein - eine Gesellschaftsutopie für freie Menschen. 2019.
If mankind holds on to the idea that more and more has to be produced economically, then any progress that it makes on the one hand for itself and the environment will be more than destroyed elsewhere.
Translated from: Maja Göpel. Unsere Welt neu denken - Eine Einladung. 2020.
The goals for a sustainable development are set [UN Agenda 2030]. However, we currently do not know the conditions under which humanity can implement the measures to achieve these sustainability goals globally.
Christian Berg. 2020. Sustainable Action. Overcoming the Barriers.
© Tashatuvango | Shutterstock, [US] 2018
For a long time we have
- followed the instruction «multiply and subdue the Earth».
In just 200 years, the world's population has grown from 900 million to nearly 8,000 million people. By the year 2100, according to the UNO an estimated 10,000 - 11,000 million people are to live on our Earth.
- kept thinking as if there were still as few people on earth as there were 200 years ago.
- ignored the side effects of technological progress.
- concealed the concomitants of constant growth.
ignored science's warnings of a looming climate change
No coming catastrophe has ever been studied as thoroughly as global warming. And none has ever been so thoroughly ignored. The first international climate summit was held in 1979.
With regard to a sustainable development and our consumer behaviour the rich countries of the world are, as it were, «developing countries».
The steadily growing consumption is the engine that drives the steady growth of our economy.
This in turn results in major environmental impacts worldwide and the climate change and is increasingly endangering our natural basis of life and living together on earth.
Even in the Global Risk Report 2020 of the World Economic Forum WEF are the crises with the highest probability in the coming years environment-related, such as:
- Extreme weather events with great
damage to property, infrastructure and human life.
- Governments and businesses fail to
mitigate and adapt to climate change.
- Great loss of biodiversity and
collapse of ecosystems with irreversible consequences for the environment,
which leads to a severe depletion of resources for humanity and industry.
One of the biggest problems in finding a way out of this paradoxical situation is that very few people perceive it as paradoxical.
Translated from: Harald Welzer. Alles könnte anders sein. Eine Gesellschaftsutopie für freie Menschen. 2019
Growth and Resources
© M-SUR | Shutterstock, [US] 2018
We have to face
the growth dilemma
Giving up on growing our current economy means the risk of economic and social collapse.
Maintaining growth means the risk of destroying global ecosystems that are our basis of existence.
Tim Jackson. Prosperity without Growth - Foundations for the economy of tomorrow. 2016
It's a dilemma: it does not work without growth, there is no completely green growth, and normal growth inevitably leads to ecological disaster.
Translated from: Ulrike Herrmann. Goodbye, Kapitalismus: So kann der Übergang zu einer neuen Wirtschaftsordnung gelingen. Perspective Daily 11. Januar 2021
We urgently need a clear vision, a bold policy, and a truely robust strategy to find the way out of the growth dilemma. The growth dilemma is barely taken into account by the normal policy-makers and is mentioned only marginally in public debate.
Tim Jackson. Prosperity without Growth - Foundations for the economy of tomorrow. 2016
© Munimara | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2018
It is clear that there are no simple answers to this - none that could be proposed without proposing at the same time a transformation in the whole of the way we think, work and order our lives.
David Fleming, Surviving the Future: Culture, Carnival and Capital in the Aftermath of the Market Economy. 2016
The overriding goal, it seems, can no longer be solely growth. It must become a truly sustainable development.
Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker and Anders Wijkman. Come on! - Capitalism, Short-terminism, Population and the Destruction of the Planet. 2017
Three per cent growth means doubling the size of the global economy every twenty-three years [...]. This might be OK if GDP were just plucked out of thin air. But it's not. It is coupled to energy and resource use [...].
Jason Hickel. 2020. Less is More. How degrowth will sage the world.
The decoupling is to be achieved with more efficient production processes. However, producing more efficiently means an increase in productivity and this enables further growth with additional resource consumption.
cannot just rely on efficiency measures, because we have not
succeeded in decoupling global economic growth from resource consumption in
absolute terms. The results globally so far do not allow for optimism.
Global use of materials is accelerating. It has more than tripled since 1970. Moreover, the global economy is only 9 percent circular. Just 9 percent of the 92.8 billion tonnes of material that enter the economy are re-used annually.
PACE The Platform for Accelerating the Circular Economy. The Circularity Gap Report 2019
Not only is there no empirical evidence supporting the existence of a decoupling of economic growth from environmental pressures on anywhere near the scale needed to deal with environmental breakdown, but also, and perhaps more importantly, such decoupling appears unlikely to happen in the future.
Parrique T. etal. 2019. European Environmental Bureau. Decoupling debunked: Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability.
Therefore, two different decoupling tasks must be persued:
(1) decoupling the production of goods and services from unsustainable natural consumption and
(2) decoupling the satisfaction of human needs from the imperative to ever more consumption.
Maja Göpel. The Great Mindshift. 2016
© Christos Georghiou | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2018
So today we are faced with the Herculean task
- of satisfying the basic needs of what is soon to be 10 billion people worldwide
- while, at the same time, respecting the ecological limits of our planet.
In this context, it should be remembered:
A minority of around 20 percent of the world's population, mainly in rich countries, but also the rich worldwide, currently accounts for around 80 percent of total global resource consumption.
Multiple sources: The figures indicate the order of magnitude, but there are no exact data available.
© BlueRingMedia | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2019
The great fallacy of the environmental debate over the past 30 years has been the hope that an ecological turnaround can essentially be implemented with some technological innovation programme within the existing economic order.
The continuing impressive development of prosperity has not been able to slow down climate change, resource consumption or the loss of biodiversity - on the contrary, all these pressures have increased massively.
Translated from: Uwe Schneidewind. Die Grosse Transformation - Eine Einführung in die Kunst gesellschaftlichen Wandels. 2018
Technological innovation is absolutely important [...]. It is vital, in fact. We're going to need all the innovations and efficiency improvements we can get to drastically reduce the resource and carbon intensity of our economy.
But the problem we face doesn't have to do with technology. The problem has to do with growth. Over and over again, we see that the growth imperative wipes out all the gains our best technology delivers.
Jason Hickel. Less is more. How degrowth will save the world. 2020
Today, Europe continues to consume more resources and contribute more to environmental degradation than many other world regions.
We do not only have to do more; we also have to do things differently. Over the next decade, we are going to need very different answers to the world's environmental and climate challenges than the ones we have provided over the past 40 years.
The European Environment - State and Outlook 2020. European Environment Agency. 2019
[Because] problems can never be solved with the same mindset that created them.
Quote from Albert Einstein
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It is quite simply a fact that the current ways of life and economic activity have a comprehensive and deep impact on various ecosystems.
Future generations [...] therefore face drastic and irreversible disadvantages.
To date, environmental and sustainability policy has far from succeeded in achieving a sufficiently strong reduction in ecological burdens.
Translated from: Institut für ökologische Wirtschaftsforschung (IÖW): Gesellschaftliches Wohlergehen innerhalb planetaren Grenzen, Texte 89/2018 im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamt Deutschland. 2018.
Since [in the «free» market economy] public and common goods such as clean air, biodiversity, cohesion or justice have no price, they can be destroyed for free and the resulting costs be charged to the general public.
Christian Felber. Change Everything. Creating an Economy for the Common Good. 2015
We need a policy shift that does not treat sustainability as a possible by-product of an economic growth agenda, but aims directly at sustainable consumption, production and investment.
Translated from: Maja Göpel. Unsere Welt neu denken - Eine Einladung 2020
An alignment of the global digital revolution with the goals of sustainability [..] is hardly to be seen, even though many key players emphasise that they have acted for the benefit of humankind.
WBGU German Advisory Council on Global Change 2018. Digitalization: What We Need to Talk About.
The combination of digital progress and capitalist ideology in a fully monetarised society obviously leads to a concentration of power among a few, mostly private, actors.
However, digitalization has contributed as much as nothing to solving the really big problems [...]. Because normally only ideas that can be made into money come onto the market. But most urgent problems are problems that affect the poor.
Translated from: Jonas Lüscher, Writer - Interview in the newspaper Tages-Anzeiger, 06.01.2018
As long as digitalisation is mainly oriented towards short-term economic profitability, the potentials of digitalisation for more sustainability and equal opportunities will not be used.
Translated from: Forum Nachhaltig Wirtschaften. Digitalisierung global nachhaltig gestalten. 5.7.2021
The three main objectives of ecological sustainability are decarbonisation, dematerialisation and renaturalisation.
In theory at least, the growth of digital services can be compatible with the goals of ecological sustainability. But today's reality is far-removed from that ideal.
The consumption of energy and material is actually increasing as digitalisation expands. This situation will not change unless the majority of affected companies adopt the three ecological objectives as binding principles.
Ortwin Renn, et al. The opportunities and risks of digitalisation for sustainable development: a systemic perspective. GAIA 30/1(2021): 23-28
Overall, digitalization processes today tend to act as «fire accelerants», exacerbating existing non-sustainable trends such as the overuse of natural resources and growing social inequality in many countries.
On the one hand, it must be plainly stated that the digitalization of business and everyday life has so far been marginally oriented towards sustainability aspects.
On the other hand, digitalization offers an enormous range of possibilities for supporting the Great Transformation towards sustainability.
WBGU German Advisory Council on Global Change. Towards our Common Digital Future. 2019.
© Photobank gallery | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2019 © Scharfsinn | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2019
Even today, we are presumably much better at understanding the social consequences of climate change than the social conditions for limiting it.
Christian Berg. 2020. Sustainable Action. Overcoming the Barriers.
An average increase in global warming of 5 degrees worldwide, as predicted by the end of the century, means massive changes.
5 degrees in the other direction as a comparison, that was the last ice age. About two thirds of Switzerland were covered by ice at that time. That's the measure of change when we talk about 5 degrees.
Translated from the interview with Reto Knutti, climatologist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETHZ Zurich, REPUBLIK 23.11.2019
In fact, China is the single largest emitter of carbon. This is, however, largely due to goods produced in China but consumed elsewhere in the world.
If we attribute the emissions to where the consumption takes place, North Americans consume 22.5 tons of CO2e per year per person, Western Europeans 13.1, Chinese 6, and South Asia just 2.2.
Overall, we get the 50-10 rule: 10 percent of the world's population (the highest polluters) contribute roughly 50 percent of CO2 emissions, while the 50 percent who pollute the least contribute just over 10 percent.
The citizens of rich countries and, more generally, the rich worldwide, bear an overwhelming responsibility for any future climate change.
Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo. 2019. Good Economics for Hard Times - Better Answers to Our Biggest Problems.
Oceans out of balance
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity. However, few people know that climate change is above all taking place in the oceans. They are becoming warmer, more acidic and sea levels are rising.
The oceans cover more than
70 per cent of the surface of the planet. To date, the oceans have
absorbed about a quarter of global CO2 emissions. However, the
oceans are becoming increasingly acidic as carbonic acid is formed during the
absorption of CO2.
© Marti Bug Catcher | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2021
The lack of appropriate wastewater treatment and the release of pollutants from the manufacturing industry, agriculture, tourism, fisheries and shipping continue to put pressure on the ocean, with a negative impact on food security, food safety and marine biodiversity.
The ocean plays a crucial role in the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals and the livelihoods of billions of people. We urgently need to change how we interact with it.
The Second World Ocean Assessment. United Nations. 2021
The «climate decade»
The goal of halving global emissions by 2030 represents the absolute minimum we must achieve if we are to have at least a 50 per cent chance of safeguarding humanity from the worst impacts.
Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac. 2020. The Future We Choose - Surviving the Climate Crisis.
The primary challenge is to stop the flow of money to oil, coal and gas and to establish a clear path towards de-carbonization. The «sustainability» of finance can be gauged by how far and how fast it shifts us away from the fossil fuel economy, rather than simply allowing the financial sector to develop new «green» markets alongside a core business that continues to bankroll climate change.
Oscar Reyes. Change Finance - Not the Climate. 2020
We are entering the «climate decade». A ten year period where our collective actions will determine the kind of world our children and grandchildren will inherit.
The Climate Decade. Ten Years to Deliver the Paris Agreement. The GlobeScan-SustainAbility Servey. 2019
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Covid-19 has demonstrated that the foundations of prosperity are precarious. Disasters long talked about, and long ignored, can come upon you with no warning, turning life inside out and shaking all that seemed stable. The harm from climate change will be slower than the pandemic but more massive and longer-lasting.
A new opportunity to tackle climate change - Countries should seize the moment to flatten the climate curve. The Economist - May 21st, 2020
We think of climate change as slow, but it is unnervingly fast. We think of the technological change necessary to avert it as fast-arriving, but unfortunately it is deceptively slow, especially judged by just how soon we need it.
David Wallace-Wells. The uninhabital earth. Life after warming. 2019
© Pavel K | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2020 © oticki | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2020
The large and rapidly progressing decline in global biodiversity is also a serious risk to the food security of future humans.
Land use change linked to massive expansion of globalized, highly commercialized industrial agriculture is the main overarching driver of declining agrobiodiversity. 1 % of the world's farms operate 70% of crop fields, ranches and orchards.
Globally, the FAO estimates that 75 % of crop diversity was lost in the 20th century. Historically about 7,000 plant species were cultivated for food, today only about 80 plant species make major contributions to food supplies at the global level.
In fact, half of all plant-based calories come from only three species - rice, maize, and wheat. And 93 % of global meat supplies come from just four animal species - pigs, poultry, cattle, and buffalo.
Looking ahead, restoring agrobiodiversity - the richness of what we cultivate, breed, consume, and conserve in the wild - is crucial to ensure resilient food systems against the backdrop of climate change.
Swiss academies factsheets Vol.15 No.1. 2020. Variety is the source of life: Agrobiodiversity benefits, challenges, and needs.
Biodiversity is experiencing a dramatic, human-induced mass extinction worldwide [...]. This also greatly reduces the capacity of ecosystems to contribute to climate regulation and food security.
Only if there is a fundamental change in the way we manage land can we reach the targets of climate-change mitigation, avert the dramatic loss of biodiversity and make the global food system sustainable.
WBGU German Advisory Council on Global Change. 2020. Rethinking Land in the Anthropocene: from Separation to Integration.
© underworld | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2019 © Sira Anamwong | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2019
The incentives in today's economic system are still one-sidedly promoting
the exploitation of nature and man.
To detach Nature from economic reasoning is to imply that we consider ourselves to be external to Nature.
We may have increasingly queried the absence of Nature from official conceptions of economic possibilities, but the worry has been left for Sundays. On week-days, our thinking has remained as usual.
The fault is not in economics; it lies in the way we have chosen to practise it.
Partha Dasgupta. The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review. Abridged Version. 2021
Economic growth based on exploitation - the business model of the rich West for 400 years - has reached its limits. The exploitability of people and the ecosystems [...] leads to migration in millions and catastrophic environmental impacts.
Translated from: Philipp Blom. Was auf dem Spiel steht. 2017
There will be no more simple solutions for our problems. As for example: More market, more growth, more prosperity - that does not work.
Translated from an interview with Silke Beck, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung in Leipzig. 14.05.2020.
© mipan | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2020
Have now - pay later. In order not to be limited by what one can currently achieve by ones' efforts, the store of future possibilities is plundered in advance. The beneficiaries of living beyond one's means have long been in the majority [in rich countries].
But one loser is certain in any case: the ecosphere.
Niko Paech. 2016. Liberation from Excess - The Road to a post-growth economy.
.... [it is] the conditions of any future economy that need to be redeveloped: For all the great achievements that we can look back on have only been at the price of not taking into account either the natural conditions or the living situations of people in other parts of the world.
Translated from: Harald Welzer. Alles könnte anders sein - Eine Gesellschaftsutopie für freie Menschen. 2019
The ecological problems will increase and so will the social and economic upheavals. [...] we need to ask ourselves what kind of economic system will serve the people and also maintain the ecological foundations. Today's does not.
Translated from: Interview with the economist Irmi Seidl. Der ökologische Umbau wird die Arbeitswelt verändern. Tages-Anzeiger. 15.02.2020
It is not about overthrowing society or changing human nature. It is about taking very simple steps towards the economy of tomorrow. An economy that fulfils its purpose. Towards a meaningful prosperity on a finite planet.
Jackson Tim. 2016. Prosperity without Growth - Foundations for the Economy of Tomorrow.
© Gustavo Frazao | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2019
It isn't the goal of transforming our society towards a sustainable development that is utopian, but rather the view that today's non-sustainable development can simply be maintained.
We have to move towards a sustainable life, even if there is no master plan on how to achieve the transformation of our present society - with its perpetual expansion - towards sustainable development.
Sustainable development is hardly conceivable without  moving away from the predominantly linear economy towards a consistent circular economy,  simultaneously cutting back on overconsumption and  rapidly reducing CO2 emissions.
© studioworkstock | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2018
over-consumption is possible because we personally pay the price
for it only to a small extent. The lion's share goes to nature, another part is
paid by people in other parts of the world, and in the future, our children and
grandchildren will pay for it.
We must move from the deeply internalized attitude of competition and self-interest to a basic attitude of cooperation and common good, if for example, we really want to curb global climate change.
© MintArt | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2020
Although much time has passed since then to achieve the Goals for Sustainable Development of the Agenda 2030, few people know about them. Without decisive action, no country will achieve the goals by 2030. At least the commitment to sustainable development was included in the final communiqué of the 2019 G20 summit.
Above all, the consumption behaviour of the rich industrialised countries is the subject of criticism. The UN warned that without better performance by the G20 countries, which are responsible for 75 percent of global CO2 emissions, the 2030 Agenda will fail.
If, as forecasted, the world's population
increases from 7.1 billion to 9.7 billion by 2050, humans and the planet will
face many challenges. Asia's rise will undoubtedly also lead to a higher energy
demand, more consumption and production. This could undo the progress we have
made on climate protection, on a global scale.
This calls for a public discussion on a
broad approach to sustainability. It is about overdue reforms for economic
modernisation, climate protection and innovation.
Source: Sabina Wölkner. Agenda 2030: Mut zur Nachhaltigkeit! Konrad Adenauerstiftung. 16. September 2019
Our dilemma as environmentally-aware affluent citizens
If we wealthy people want to protect the environment, all we have to do today - so we consumers are told - is to go to the supermarket. There are now sustainable and environmentally-friendly products everywhere.
We can therefore seemingly consume more and more without any worries and thereby even do something good for the environment. Almost no product from toilet paper up to cars is sold without the promise that one makes the world a little better.
© Rudmer Zwerver
| Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2018
«Buy me and make this world a little bit better» is the key message found among sustainable brand's marketing. It is argued that the market will fix the climate problem: One does not have to consume less, but only consume in a different way. Now, however, the validity of this approach is being shaken daily by reports of the consequences of our actions.
Translated according to Marcus Jauer. Tages-Anzeiger 10.12.2018 und Sebastian Schoep. Tages-Anzeiger 06.06.2019
© Rawpixel.com | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2018
So renunciation - but what does renunciation mean?
In rich countries, renunciation means [...] actually nothing more and nothing less than refraining from ruining the planet and in return preserving the basis of life in the future. - That's a big word, of course. Couldn't it be a little bit smaller? Unfortunately not.
Translated from: Maja Göpel. 2020. Unsere Welt neu denken. Eine Einladung.