Sustainable
The Great Dilemma
Growth + Resources
It's a dilemma: it does not work without growth, there is no completely green growth, and normal growth inevitably leads to ecological disaster.
Translated from: Ulrike Herrmann. Book: Goodbye, Kapitalismus: So kann der Übergang zu einer neuen Wirtschaftsordnung gelingen. 2022
Three per cent growth means doubling the size of the global economy every twenty-three years. This might be OK if GDP*) were just plucked out of thin air. But it's not. It is coupled to energy and resource use.
Jason Hickel. Book: Less is More. How degrowth will save the world. 2020
*) GDP stands for gross domestic product and represents the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced and sold within a country during a period of time.
© Ueli Hafner 2022
Continued growth isn't a fairy tale, it's a necessity. But not just any growth.
The power of the market needs to be directed to achieving what society wants. That requires measures of income and welfare that reflect our values.
We need a world where we are no longer guided solely by measures like gross domestic product GDP.
Mark Carney. Book: Value(s) - Building a Better World for All. 2021
We urgently need a clear vision, a bold policy, and a truly robust strategy to find the way out of the growth dilemma.
The growth dilemma is barely taken into account by the normal policy-makers and is mentioned only marginally in public debate.
Tim Jackson. Book: Prosperity without Growth - Foundations for the economy of tomorrow. 2016
Wallpaper © Anderl | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2018
However, more efficient production means an increase in productivity, and this results in additional growth with corresponding resource consumption.
In the capitalist economy, all efficiency gains are in principle translated into additional economic activity. This reinvestment of efficiency gains is the basic economic principle unterlying growth and profits.
Beckert Jens. Book: How We Sold Our Future. The Failure to Fight Climate Change. 2025
So far, global environment and climate policies have at best achieved relative decoupling*) between GDP and resource use respectively greenhouse gas emissions.
Helmut Haberl et al. 2020. A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights. Environ. Res. Lett. 15 065003.
*) A relative decoupling of resource consumption and economic growth means that although resource consumption increases less strongly in a more sustainable but still growing economy, it still increases.
In the case of an absolute decoupling, resource consumption would no longer increase despite a growing economy.
It is a cause for great concern about the prevailing focus of policy makers on green growth, this focus being based on the flawed assumption that sufficient decoupling can be achieved through increased efficiency without limiting economic production and consumption.
Parrique T. etal. 2019. European Environmental Bureau. Decoupling debunked: Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability. PDF
In fact, over the past decade, some rich countries have reduced their CO2 emissions while increasing their gross domestic product GDP and hence achieved an absolute decoupling. But, at the achieved rates, these countries would on average take more than 220 years to reduce their emissions by 95%.
Jefim Vogel and Jason Hickel. Is green growth happening? An empirical analysis of achieved versus Paris-compliant CO2 – GDP decoupling in high-income countries 2023
The analysis of data from 1,500 regions over the past 30 years showed that 30 percent have managed to lower their carbon emissions while continuing to thrive economically. The authors caution that the current pace of decoupling is insufficient to meet the global climate target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Green growth: 30 percent of regions worldwide achieve economic growth while reducing carbon emissions. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. October 2024
Circularity is important in advancing a sustainable and just development agenda. Ensuring economic and social development without exceeding our planetary boundaries is the challenge of the 21st century.
By reducing the need for primary materials and the associated greenhouse gas emissions linked to the extraction and processing of those resources, circular economy actions can make an important contribution to climate action.
The cicular economy in motion. European Investment Bank. 2024
Increasing resource use is the main driver of the triple plantery crisis.
A projected 60 per cent growth in resource use by 2060 could derail efforts to achieve not only global climate, biodiversity, and pollution targets but also economic prosperity and human well-being.
Reducing the resource intensity of food, mobility, housing and energy systems is the best and only way of achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs), the climate goals, and ultimately a just and liveable planet for all.
United Nations Environment Programme. Global Resources Outlook 2024 Summary. Bend the Trend - Press Release . March 2024
Resource extraction and processing are responsible for 90% of global biodiversity loss, 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and over 30% of air-pollution-related health impacts.
Piotr Barczak. How a circular economy can cure globale resource overconsumption. Meta from European Environmental Bureau. July 16, 2024.
Despite efforts to move towards a circular economy, the proportion of recycled materials in the total consumption of all materials has decreased in recent years.
The share of secondary materials*) consumed by the global economy has decreased from 9.1% in 2018 to 7.2% in 2023, a 21% drop over the course of five years.
The Circularity Gap Report 2024 - Executive summary. Circal Economy Foundation.*) Secondary materials originate from collected, disposed materials and differ from primary materials extracted from nature.
Wallpapers © Aleutie + © Anson0618 | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2019/2024
There will be no one simple solution for decoupling prosperity and the destruction of nature, but if we don't manage it, we will have to adapt to the new conditions. And they'll be tough.
Translated from: Interview with Harald Lesch. Digitale Welten riechen nicht. GeoPlus 29.09. 2021
The environmental challenges we face are massive. If we don't tackle them, the consequences will be devastating and cruelly unequal. We must act. It must be large-scale. And so much quicker than we have done before.
Hannah Ritchie. Book: Not the End of the World. Surprising facts, dangerous myths and hopeful solutions for our future on planet Earth. 2024
We are now faced with the Herculean task of satisfying the basic needs of what will soon be 9 to 10 billion people while at the same time respecting the Earth's ecological limits.
In this context, it is important to remember the great inequality.
© Sira Anamwong | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2018
Over the past four decades, global production as measured by GDP has increased more than threefold.
The richest 1% have claimed 54% of total gains from growth, while the richest 5% have claimed 70%.
The richest 1% now control 42% of the world's wealth. The richest 5% control 69% of the wealth.
Wealth is not just about consumption, it is about power. Power in the world economy is far from equitable or democratic; it is concentrated in the hands of a few.
Sullivan, D., Hickel, J., & Zoomkawala, H. (2025). "Global income inequality", Global Inequality Project. Global/Inequality
© Waldemarus | Shutterstock, Inc. [US] 2018
The world's wealthiest 10% are responsible for two thirds of observed global warming since 1990 and the resulting increases in climate extremes such as heatwaves and droughts.
International Institute for Applied Systems Anlaysis. The world's wealthiest 10 % caused two thirds of global warming since 1990. 07 May 2025
15 to 20% of the world's population account for around 80% of global resource consumption.
Various sources: There are no exact data on this.
80 per cent of the world's population has never boarded an aircraft and only 1 per cent of the world's population is responsible for half of all flight emissions.Stefan Gössling, Andreas Humpe. 2020. The global scale, distribution and growth of aviation: Implication for climate change.